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Currency & Commodity Trading
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As the Chief Economist at the Friedberg Mercantile Group, I directed major foreign exchange positions tied to macro and commodity dynamics.
1985-Oil Trade
- In 1985 I analyzed OPEC behavior and predicted crude oil would drop below 10 dollars per barrel. Friedberg built large short positions in crude and gas oil and short positions in Middle Eastern currencies linked to oil. The oil market collapsed as expected, making this one of my best known commodity trades.
1993- My First Mega Trade in Foreign Exchange
- In 1993, I led a successful short of the French franc during the 1993 ERM crisis and in 1998, when I correctly anticipated the 1998 Russian ruble devaluation.
1995- Tequilla Crisis
- While markets feared a collapse of Argentina’s currency regime, in the aftermath of the 1994 Mexican peso crisis I concluded it would survive. As President of Toronto Trust Argentina, I aggressively purchased Argentine peso-denominated bonds. When the feared devaluation never materialized, the fund returned 79.25 percent in 1995, making it the best performing emerging market mutual fund that year.