Friedberg Commodity and Mercantile Group and Oil Trading.
After publishing work on business cycles I joined the Friedberg Mercantile Group in Toronto as chief economist in 1985. While remaining a professor at Johns Hopkins, I edited Friedberg’s market letter Commodity and Currency Comments. Under my leadership, Friedberg made several accurate, high-profile market predictions, including the 1998 devaluation of the Russian ruble and the 1985 collapse of oil prices below $10 per barrel.
Toronto Trust Argentina
I later served as president of Toronto Trust Argentina, which was managed by Friedberg, in the aftermath of the 1994 Mexican peso crisis. While markets feared a collapse of Argentina’s currency regime, I concluded it would survive and aggressively purchased Argentine peso-denominated bonds. When the feared devaluation never materialized, the fund earned a return of 79.25% in 1995, making it the best performing emerging market mutual fund that year.
Metals, Minerals, and AMG Critical Materials
My work also extended to metals and minerals through my role on the supervisory board of Advanced Metallurgical Group (AMG), where I became chairman in 2019. During a commodity price slump, I advocated for an austerity program that cut capital expenditures, reduced working capital, and paid down debt. I also wrote extensively on the Metallgesellschaft derivatives hedging episode, arguing that the company’s hedge program was widely misunderstood.