Overview
The Troubled Currencies Project is a joint initiative between Johns Hopkins University and the Cato Institute, founded in 2013 by Professor Steve H. Hanke.
Troubled Currencies Project — Cato Institute The project's mission is to collect black-market exchange rate data for currencies in countries experiencing monetary distress, and to use that data to calculate real-time implied inflation rates — independent of government statistics.
"The Troubled Currencies Project has been called 'the most accurate real-time inflation measurement service in the world' — tracking black-market exchange rates in countries where governments suppress economic data."
The Problem It Solves
Governments experiencing hyperinflation have a powerful incentive to lie about it. Official inflation statistics in countries like Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Iran, and North Korea are routinely manipulated, suppressed, or simply not published. Conventional inflation measurement — which relies on government-collected consumer price data — is useless in these environments.
Hanke's insight: markets never lie. When citizens lose confidence in their currency, they flee to foreign exchange — particularly the U.S. dollar. The black-market exchange rate encodes, in real time, what citizens actually believe about the value of their currency. Using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) methodology, this black-market rate can be converted into an implied inflation rate that reflects economic reality rather than government propaganda.
Methodology: PPP and Black-Market Exchange Rates
The core methodology is elegant:
- Collect black-market exchange rates — gathered from field sources, trader networks, and digital markets in each country
- Apply Purchasing Power Parity — compare the black-market rate to the equilibrium rate implied by price levels
- Calculate implied annual inflation — using the rate of change in the black-market exchange rate
- Publish in real time — updated continuously, unlike monthly or annual official statistics
This approach was first developed in Hanke's work on Zimbabwe (2008), where official inflation statistics were suspended entirely and the government denied hyperinflation was occurring. Working with Alex Kwok, Hanke estimated Zimbabwe's peak monthly inflation at 7.96 × 10^10% (November 2008) — the second-highest ever recorded.
Countries Tracked
Original launch countries (2013):
- Argentina
- Egypt
- Iran
- North Korea
- Syria
- Venezuela
Expanded coverage: The project subsequently expanded to track 44 countries across the globe, making it the most comprehensive real-time survey of monetary distress available anywhere.
Hanke's Inflation Satellite
On February 10, 2021, Professor Hanke launched Hanke's Inflation Satellite — an interactive online map providing real-time inflation estimates for 44 troubled countries. The tool visualizes implied inflation rates geographically, allowing instant comparison across countries and time periods.
Hanke's Inflation Satellite — Cato Institute
Follow live:
- Twitter/X: @steve_hanke
- Hashtag: #HankeInflationDashboard
Notable Measurements
Country | Period | Peak Measurement | Notes |
Zimbabwe | November 2008 | 7.96 × 10^10% per year | Second-highest hyperinflation ever recorded; estimated by Hanke and Kwok |
Iran | 2012 | ~69.6% per month (implied) | Hanke estimated during international sanctions crisis; government denied |
Venezuela | 2016–present | Ongoing hyperinflation | Among the longest-running hyperinflation episodes in modern history |
Lebanon | July 2020 onward | Severe hyperinflation | Ongoing; banking system collapse and currency crisis |
North Korea | 2011 | Unreported episode | Discovered and documented by Hanke using defector data and market rates |
Danzig | 1923 | Previously unreported | Historical episode documented in Hanke-Krus World Hyperinflations table |
📰 Global Reach: The Troubled Currencies Project has been cited in major financial publications worldwide, including the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, Bloomberg, and The Economist. It has become the go-to reference for inflation in countries where official data is unreliable.
Key Insight: Why Official Statistics Fail
"Markets never lie — when official statistics are manipulated, black-market exchange rates reveal the truth." — Professor Steve H. Hanke
The Troubled Currencies Project operates on a fundamental principle of free-market economics: price signals carry information that no central authority can replicate or suppress. When governments attempt to hide monetary instability through statistical manipulation, citizens with access to currency markets reveal the truth through their behavior.
This is not merely an academic observation — it is a practical tool. Aid organizations, businesses, investors, and policymakers use Hanke's data to make decisions in environments where official statistics are worthless.
Institutional Context
The Troubled Currencies Project sits within Hanke's broader institutional affiliations:
- Cato Institute — Senior Fellow and Director, Troubled Currencies Project
- Johns Hopkins University — Professor of Applied Economics, Co-Director, Institute for Applied Economics
- Center for Financial Stability — Special Counselor (New York)
The project represents the applied extension of Hanke's academic work on the Hanke-Krus World Hyperinflations Table — his comprehensive documentation of 62 hyperinflation episodes across history.
Related Pages
- Hyperinflation — Hanke's academic work on hyperinflation measurement and history
- Countries Advised — Countries where Troubled Currencies data informed policy advice
- Free Market Economics — The price-signal theory underlying the methodology
- Currency Boards — The preferred cure for the crises the Project measures